Pakistan’s October 2023 announcement to expel all unregistered migrants has caused fear among its nearly two million undocumented Afghans of deportation to dangerous conditions. Pakistan claims the measure is necessary to combat terrorist groups in its border region, but critics warn it could further radicalize Afghans and others.
What is Pakistan’s deportation policy?
The deportation order applies to all unregistered foreigners in Pakistan as of November 1, 2023. Afghan citizens are most affected, with over 4 million residing in Pakistan and an estimated 1.7 million undocumented. Many have lived there for decades, fleeing Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation. Smaller numbers of undocumented Somalians and Yemenis are also threatened.
Pakistan’s government hastily created 49 new deportation centers to implement a policy of deporting migrants, primarily Afghans. Conditions in the centers are reportedly grim. 15,000 Afghans cross the border daily, and an estimated 450,000 have left. Pakistani officials assure legal residents won’t be expelled, but some have been targeted. Legal residents fear intimidation and eviction, leading many to flee. The Supreme Court is hearing challenges to the order.
Why is Pakistan deporting migrants?
Islamabad claims the policy fights terrorism. The disputed Pakistan-Afghanistan border, known as the “Durand Line,” has been home to extremist groups for decades.
These include the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State in Khorasan, an offshoot of the broader Islamic State group. Pakistani officials blame Afghan nationals for a sharp increase in high-profile terrorist attacks and accuse Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government of harboring militants. Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar said in November 2023, “A significant portion of those involved in criminal and terrorist activities are among these illegal immigrants.”
Some analysts say Pakistan hopes to pressure the Taliban government to take terrorism seriously. Others point to a desire to reduce the Pashtun population, a sizable minority to which many Afghan migrants belong, whom Pakistan’s military sees as a separatist threat.
This isn’t the first time Pakistan cited security concerns in a migration crackdown. In 2016, it deported about six hundred thousand Afghan migrants, which Human Rights Watch called the world’s largest unlawful mass forced return of refugees. Pakistan soon began building a fence along the Durand Line.
The deportations could strain Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan, which has condemned the policy. Hundreds of thousands of returnees could complicate aid efforts due to ongoing Western sanctions on the Taliban. Afghanistan has called for more international assistance, alleging a similar push by Iran to expel its Afghan population. However, many donors remain hesitant. Some analysts say Islamabad’s plan to reduce terrorist attacks by deporting migrants could backfire by fueling grievances and decreasing Kabul’s cooperation.